Why Aston Martin F1 is no longer a gamble for Vettel

Perception in sport is changing very quickly, and perhaps the biggest shift from the Austrian Grand Prix to the Styrian Grand Prix last weekend was the reality of how fast Racing Point can be.

A hesitant first weekend with ‘Pink Mercedes’ left-wing rivals convinced it had made a good move, but it wasn’t until the second Red Bull Ring race that the reality of its pace became apparent.

Red Bull admitted all teams should be “concerned” by now, Renault filed its protest and Racing Point itself, which will be renamed Aston Martin F1 Team in 2021, warned of even better things.

However, the impact of this performance could extend even further, as it may be the trigger for perhaps the biggest shock of the surprising F1 driver market in 2020: Sebastian Vettel moves to Aston Martin.

Where once such a prospect seemed extremely fanciful and Vettel was clear about the qualities he wanted from any team he wanted to join, it now suddenly makes a lot of sense.

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The bottom line is that this isn’t Racing Point trying to convince Vettel of how good his car could be over the next few years.

Instead, the way F1’s rules have been influenced by the coronavirus pandemic means that it can already be shown what the car will look like in the next year.

With minimal changes allowed for development through 2021, the chances of a major mess in the order in the next 18 months are pretty slim. What is fast now should be fast next year.

Additionally, the 2022 revision – with the budget cap biting the top teams as they devise spending cuts – could be a distraction for the top guys and give some of the flush midfield outfits a chance to move forward.

When Vettel talked about his thought process over a possible deal with Racing Point last week, he certainly left the door wide open. “I don’t know what will happen yet. The race is extremely important to me now and then over the next few weeks, months we will see what happens, what possibilities there could be, etc.

“Regardless, I think Racing Point made a very strong impression and is certainly a good place for this year.

“I know part of the team, I have known some members of the team very well from my past and for a long time. It’s obviously a good opportunity for them this year to have a good car to fight with and try to improve from there. “

Vettel’s mood in his public statements in recent weeks was to make it clear that the decision not to renew his contract with Ferrari had nothing to do with the fact that he did not want to continue.

His comments, which stressed that it was Ferrari who unilaterally pulled the plug in their time together, was about positioning themselves as someone who was hungry to race.

If he had come to terms with all this, miserable about Formula 1 and tired of traveling and getting involved, then he would probably have kept things calm and accepted a year off.

The fact that he made his unhappiness clear about it was a clear message of his motivation and how much he would like to continue.

Before the first Austrian race, Vette was emphatic on this point and that the “right package” for him would convince him to stay.

“I think I’m very competitive,” he said. “I have achieved a lot in sport and I am motivated and ready to achieve more. To do this, I need the right package and the right people around me. That’s what I’m looking for at the moment.

“If the opportunity arises, I think that’s very clear. If not, then I will probably have to look for something else. “

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Could Aston Martin be the right package?

The car itself certainly seems fast enough – faster than the current Ferrari – and knowing there is a carryover to 2021 will be encouraging.

However, it’s inevitable that Vettel keeps an eye on the outcome of the Renault protest – because if FIA rule says the team broke the rules copying Mercedes brake lines, it could have far-reaching effects on the rest of the car .

Another important factor is the engine. With a change to the team, Vettel has the chance to join the Mercedes family.

Sure, the connection won’t be as strong as if he raced for the factory team, but the connections are there – and it puts him in a pool that could be considered for the world championship team if Bottas or Lewis Hamilton left .

The ambitious plan for the future of Aston Martin, in which Lawrence Stroll is clearly driving the project, could also give Vettel the platform he needs: running an automobile company and having a team around him that he likes to focus on him. You can build something together.

Vettel has never been stronger than when he felt loved and valued. and in Aston Martin he was able to rediscover the feeling he had in his early days as Red Bull and Ferrari.

Perhaps the most intriguing thing about the whole scenario, however, is what Racing Point thinks about who they’d be pushing aside if Vettel decides to go along.

The most obvious candidate is Sergio Perez, who has a suspension clause in his contract that would allow Racing Point to play in Vettel instead.

That may seem pretty harsh considering how loyal Perez was to the team and the role he played in keeping it alive in 2018 when Force India was on the verge of collapse, but F1 can be a ruthless game at times.

Also, let’s not forget about the pretty strong sponsorship backing Perez brings, something that won’t be that easy to replace.

Racing Point’s management must be aware, however, that a line-up of Vettel and Perez is a stronger combination than Vettel and Stroll. and one that could mean the difference between fighting for the top three designers and ending up in the top five.

Could the unthinkable happen and the team actually stand and stroll into another role? It’s hard to believe that this is the case, but not much is impossible in Formula 1.

The ball is now very strong on Vettel’s place. A decision is effectively required before the F1 meets at Silverstone for the Great Britain Grand Prix.

And where signing for Racing Point seemed like the gamble of his life a few weeks ago, now it may well be one of the smartest moves he’s ever made.