5 bold predictions for the 2021 F1 season – how many will come true?

It’s that time of year when resolutions are made, hopes are raised and anticipation builds as the start of a new Formula 1 season is just around the corner. Regulations may be broadly stable into 2021, but there’s still plenty of room for pecking order changes, so I’m not holding back on my predictions for the future…

1. Red Bull wins the Constructors’ Championship

I’ll be brave from the start. It has been seven seasons since Red Bull not only won the constructors’ championship, but posed a real challenge to the iconic silverware, a statistic that falls far short of owner Dietrich Mateschitz’s high expectations.

However, this year will be different as Red Bull will benefit from the stable rules. Every year since their title triumph in 2013, they’ve started on the backfoot with a new car that they’ve struggled to understand. There will be no blank slate this season as Red Bull transports over 60% of its car.

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They triumphed at the 2020 finale in Abu Dhabi, which had previously been a Mercedes fortress, which bodes well for a stronger start next year. Their rate of development throughout the season has been excellent and with the defined direction of their RB16B and a solid understanding of their base car they can only continue.

Expect Red Bull Mercedes to be an eyesore from race one, with Max Verstappen leading the way and his new veteran teammate Sergio Perez giving them the ruthless consistency they craved from the second car.

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With the lineup they have now, stable rules playing to their advantage and momentum after a strong end to 2020, there can and will be no more excuses.

2. Renault – now Alpine – will break into the top 3

Fifth place in the Constructors’ Championship belies the tremendous strides Renault has made since becoming a works operation in 2016, with the French manufacturer claiming three podium finishes in those five years.

Under their new Alpine name, the Enstone-based squad – arguably the best-resourced midfield team – is set to continue its upward trend in 2021.

Two-time champion Fernando Alonso will give them that heavyweight feel and while it may take time for him to get back up to speed, his vast experience and impressive feedback will be key.

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Combine that with the maturing Esteban Ocon, who showed veritable flashes of speed last year despite being outshone by Daniel Ricciardo, and who will appreciate his chances of taking on his more famous team-mate and you have a brand that’s a regular on the podium can allow for a top three finish in the Constructors Championship.

3. McLaren will win a race

Carlos Sainz came tantalizingly close to his maiden win at Monza in what would have been McLaren’s first triumph since the 2012 Brazilian GP, ​​when the British team rounded a corner to spark hopes they would be a force again.

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Third place in the Constructors’ Championship, beating better equipped teams Renault and Racing Point – who will become Alpine and Aston Martin respectively this year – was a sensational achievement as they took their chances and performed at a high level.

They enter this year with momentum, a fresh injection of significant investment and with a new engine supplier in Mercedes, the current class leader.

With Daniel Ricciardo coming on board after one of his strongest seasons ever, alongside Lando Norris – who came of age last year – and a challenger who their technical boss James Key says is “like a new car”, forecast I that McLaren will end their wait for their 183rd Grand Prix victory for eight years.

4. At least seven different drivers are on the top step of the podium

Mercedes are the overwhelming favorites for 2021 so it goes without saying that Lewis Hamilton and Valtteri Bottas will win many races between them next year.

Max Verstappen will triumph, as will teammate Perez. And with McLaren poised to win one and Aston Martin almost certain to have a car capable of reaching the top tier – that will make at least six different winners.

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Last year was a strange year that showed that racing at the front can be unpredictable – with Pierre Gasly giving AlphaTauri victory at Monza and Perez triumphing at Sakhir – and I expect that trend to continue this year year will continue.

That’s why I say there will be at least seven different faces on the top step – that would be more than a third of the starting line-up and bodes well for an exciting season.

5. Vettel will finish best of the rest behind the Mercedes and Red Bull drivers

This is perhaps my boldest prediction as the four-time champion had such a difficult final season with Ferrari last year, enduring the most disappointing season of his long and illustrious career.

His confidence was shaken, first as he was consistently beaten by rising teammate Charles Leclerc, then by his struggle to get onto a tricky car.

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But Aston Martin offers him the chance for a rebirth. They will announce him as their leader, put their arm around him and listen to his wealth of experience.

They clearly had a car capable of regular podium finishes last year and Vettel will help them fine-tune that package and achieve more consistency while also mentoring Lance, owner Lawrence Stroll’s son.

We saw a big leap in Vettel’s form when he ended up at Ferrari after being beaten as defending champion by Daniel Ricciardo at Red Bull and I expect that move – which will propel him to revitalize a famous brand – will have a similar effect behind the drivers of Mercedes and Red Bull, he finished fifth in the overall standings.