Mercedes GP and Lewis Hamilton have dominated the sport since the beginning of the turbo-hybrid era of Formula 1 in 2014. After an epic 2021 season, the Brackley-based team has brought home the eighth straight constructors ‘championship, while Hamilton was just one lap from winning the drivers’ championship.
The 2021 racing season was incredibly tight. Max Verstappen fought Hamilton and Red Bull Racing seemed to be in no way inferior to Mercedes. Despite the tightness in the battle for the championship, Hamilton never had a challenge from his teammate or any other driver on the grid, and Mercedes GP only had to compete with Red Bull in the title fight. Was Lewis Hamilton’s best chance at winning his eighth world title this season as other teams get strong towards the end of the season and multiple drivers build momentum for 2022?
New rules could rob the Mercedes of the greatest advantages
One of the advantages Mercedes has over its competitors is the drive (engine and hybrid system). Anyone who wanted to win a Grand Prix in recent years was best off with a Mercedes engine. Honda finally caught up in 2021. For the first two-thirds of the season the Honda-powered Red Bulls seemed to have the upper hand, and now with engine rules frozen until 2025, Mercedes may not have a horsepower lead to rely on when battling Honda, Ferrari and Alpine-Renault.
While the powerplant draws the most attention, the greatest benefit of the Mercedes F1 car could be lost with the upcoming 2022 rule package. Massive changes to the aerodynamics of cars will shift the focus of engineering away from complicated winglets, flow conditioners and trick rear wings. That could hurt Mercedes the most as the years of development and understanding have to be put on hold in the interests of simplicity and equality with other teams.
The Mercedes F1 car never performed well in dirty air or in traffic, but it had a big advantage over the other teams when it was ahead in clean air. The Mercedes engineers seemed to understand, just a little better than anyone, how the air around the car works.
Losing an aerodynamic advantage will hurt Lewis Hamilton as he cannot use the Mercedes’ sophisticated wings and flow conditioners to gain an edge over his competitors. That costs both his cornering speed and the speed on the straight. If Red Bull continues to develop its engine in 2022, Mercedes will also lose its horsepower advantage.
A hungry, fast, and tenacious new teammate will be looking for wins and the championship
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In 2022, Mercedes junior team driver George Russell will finally get a call to join the works team. After three years in the uncompetitive Williams F1 car, the young Briton will replace the outgoing Valterri Bottas and team up with Lewis Hamilton.
Russell is nicknamed “Mr. Saturday ”for its qualifying performance on Saturday, which often makes the Williams F1 car look a lot faster than it really is. His tremendous performance at Spa, in which he qualified one of the slowest cars on the grid in second place, shows that his nickname and reputation are well deserved.
When Russell stepped in for Mercedes in 2020 when Hamilton was sick at the Sakhir Grand Prix, he was instantly up to date. He led the race and almost won had it not been for a pit stop mistake and a flat tire. There is no reason to believe that Russell has slowed down and he will be aiming for wins and his shot for the championship.
During his tenure at Mercedes, Valterri Bottas proved that Hamilton can be vulnerable in qualifying. Russell is arguably faster than Bottas in qualifying, so Hamilton could have his hands full on Saturdays. If Russell gets the advantage of the track position over Hamilton, it could be an exciting team fight. Cunning and experience versus youth and brute speed.
Hamilton has largely outperformed his teammates over the years, but he’s vulnerable in qualifying. This year his battles with Verstappen have shown that he can make costly mistakes, especially in pursuit and when the car is not quite right. Russell will know all of this and seek to exploit these weaknesses. Expect Mercedes to allow Hamilton and Russell to compete hard against each other, but team principal Toto Wolff has already said they must obey the team rules.
Russell winning races takes points away from Lewis Hamilton. That will play for Verstappen and Red Bull for the 2022 season.
Max Verstappen, Lando Norris and the Ferrari Duo can taste blood in the water
Adrian Newey, the Chief Technical Officer of Red Bull Racing, the second placed Carlos Sainz from Spain and Ferrari, the race winner Max Verstappen from the Netherlands and Red Bull Racing as well as the third placed Lando Norris from Great Britain and McLaren F1 celebrate on the podium during the F1 Grand Monaco Prix at the Circuit de Monaco on May 23, 2021 | Gonzalo Fuentes / Getty Images)
Nothing motivates a driver more than knowing that you can win a world championship and beat one of the best drivers of all time. Max Verstappen experienced it first hand in 2021. While he said additional championships are a bonus, no one believes he will be anything but wild when it comes to defending his world drivers championship.
Verstappen now knows Hamilton can be beaten and he knows how to do it too. Verstappen will be Hamilton’s biggest challenger in 2022, and when the cars are more closely matched and the new rules make overtaking easier, then Verstappen will benefit the most.
Behind Verstappen and Hamilton’s teammates, McLaren driver Lando Norris is on the verge of a major breakthrough. 2021 was his best season so far with several podiums and 160 points for the championship. If Norris can claim their first win in 2022, expect the floodgates to open. A win will just be the confidence boost Norris needs to step up his performance.
At Ferrari, the dynamic duo Charles LeClerc and Carlos Sainz Jr. are possibly the best-matched pair of drivers on the grid. The Ferrari F1 car has continuously improved over the course of the season. Sainz’s brilliant third place at the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix and the team’s performance in Monaco show that it is temptingly close to a race win. LeClerc is simply breathtaking to watch in qualifying and could be one of the few drivers on the grid who can take on, or even beat, Verstappen. Sainz has adapted well to his new team and worked hard to bring his driving performance to LeClerc. If both drivers can maintain their momentum in 2021, they could easily battle for race wins.
For Hamilton, the attacks will come from all sides. Fighting with only Max Verstappen could have been Lewis Hamilton’s best chance to win an eighth world championship in 2021. Still at the top of his game, Hamilton can certainly win the title, but from 2022 the challenge will only get tougher. A quick teammate, a fierce rival, aspiring drivers, and a massive rule change will conspire against Hamilton’s championship bid.
Related: Lewis Hamilton and Toto Wolff made a decision after losing the championship that will affect them in 2022
