It has been over a month since the controversial end of the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix and we still don’t know if Lewis Hamilton will return to Formula 1 this season.
Speculations about Hamilton’s future have been rife since the controversial 2021 season finale, in which he lost the championship on the final lap to Max Verstappen after FIA race director Michael Masi failed to follow the correct safety car procedure.
Aside from a cryptic hint in an interview with Jenson Button immediately after the Abu Dhabi GP, Hamilton neither spoke publicly about the matter nor posted it on his social media accounts in the weeks that followed.
Hamilton was described as “disaffected” in the course of the 2021 final, according to his Mercedes team boss Toto Wolff, who could not guarantee that his star driver would return this year to fight for a record-breaking eighth world title.
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Discussions hit the headlines again this week after a BBC report suggested that Hamilton’s future may depend on the results of an FIA investigation into what happened in the last few laps in Abu Dhabi.
Should the seven-time world champion leave Formula 1, it would cause Mercedes a big headache on the eve of the new season, which after winning the 2016 world title would have nuances of Nico Rosberg’s resignation.
Mercedes bought Valtteri Bottas on his Williams deal to replace the German, but it’s less obvious how the reigning world champion would react if history repeated itself.
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Amid the uncertainty, we took a hypothetical look at what options Mercedes might have if Hamilton – who has a contract until the end of 2023 – decides to pull out of Formula 1.
Valtteri Bottas
With George Russell moving up from Williams, Mercedes will surely want an experienced driver to partner with the 22-year-old Briton when Hamilton vacates his seat.
If that were the case, look no further than Bottas. The Finn is a well-known Mercedes with five years of experience driving the team between 2017 and 2021, which makes him an obvious candidate and perhaps the safest choice.
Enabling such a U-turn would be difficult, as Bottas has signed a multi-year contract with Alfa Romeo. It is hard to imagine that the Swiss squad would part with their new statement signing. Surely only a large supply would change this attitude.
Mercedes could try to solve such a dilemma from within by removing its Formula E champion Nyck de Vries or his teammate and reserve colleague Stoffel Vandoorne from the fully electric series.
Last year, de Vries was linked to the Williams Ride, which eventually went the way of Alex Albon. The Dutchman is highly admired at Mercedes and has experience testing the team’s 2021 car, while Vandoorne previously drove for McLaren in Formula 1.
However, a move for either de Vries or Vandoorne would put Mercedes before the start of the new season later this month, facing a similar driver dilemma for its FE program.
Former Mercedes junior and reserve driver Esteban Ocon enjoyed an excellent year in 2021 when he asserted himself against his alpine team-mate Fernando Alonso and celebrated the first victory of his F1 career in Hungary.
The Frenchman was rewarded for his achievements with a new contract with Alpine until the end of 2024, but Mercedes could negotiate a deal to bring back his former protégé. This would leave a seat free for Alpine junior Oscar Piastri, who, despite being crowned F2 champion for 2022, is on the sidelines of Formula 1.
The door seems to be tightly closed on a return to F1 for Nico Hülkenberg, who last drove full-time at Renault in 2019. A departure from Hamilton could give Hulkenberg a lifeline and a long-awaited chance to prove himself in the top machinery.
The 34-year-old German is very experienced and has shown admirable performances on his three replacement missions for Racing Point in 2020, while also leading simulator runs with the 2022 car. Hulkenberg would be a solid, safe couple and driving for Mercedes would certainly give him the chance to finish his unwanted record for most F1 starts without a podium.
Pierre Gasly’s future beyond the end of the 2022 season is uncertain and the 25-year-old Frenchman is desperately looking for another chance to prove himself at the top of the grid after playing for AlphaTauri since his Red Bull demotion in mid-2019 has season.
As a Grand Prix winner and multiple podium finishers, Gasly thrives in the role of team leader at AlphaTauri and delivers a consistently high level of performance. With Red Bull continuing to overlook him, a move to Mercedes Gasly would allow him to reach his full potential and maybe even realize his F1 dream.
If Mercedes is forced to buy another driver from their current contract, Lando Norris has to be at the top of their wish-list. The 22-year-old Briton is getting stronger and stronger and impresses with a standout 2021 campaign for McLaren, which underscores why he is seen as the real deal by many in the paddock.
A line-up comprised of two of the brightest talents of the new generation of F1 drivers in Norris and Russell would be a delightful prospect for Mercedes as the team lines up for both the present and the future. But there is no way McLaren would be willing to allow its star driver to leave.
A slightly left choice for Mercedes could be Sebastian Vettel. Wolff had previously not ruled out a fall for Vettel after the four-time world champion had become free when Ferrari decided against a contract extension at the end of 2020.
Even at 34 years of age and perhaps with his prime behind him, Vettel would still be an A-list signature for Mercedes and as a German he would have an obvious commercial and marketable appeal. Maybe Wolff would be tempted to give his good friend and Aston Martin owner Lawrence Stroll a cheeky call …
Fernando Alonso
Probably the most unrealistic option on our list. Whether the drama of Alonso’s infamous 2007 appearance in the Mercedes-powered McLaren lies entirely under the bridge remains unknown, and the Spaniard has a reputation for being something of a career destroyer.
Mercedes is unlikely to want to risk potential fireworks placing Alonso alongside Russell, but the two-time world champion could be more accessible than other drivers as he will be a free agent by the end of the year.
Alonso has proven on his F1 comeback that he still has the magic and remains one of the best in the business, even as the oldest driver still on the grid. Imagine Alonso fighting for the elusive third world title in a Mercedes.
