This weekend, Formula 1 returns to the majestic Circuit of The Americas after a two-year hiatus for the 2021 United States Grand Prix. Before the action starts, let’s see who the favorites are for pole, points, podium and win in Austin, and watch how you voted on F1 Play, our amazing results prediction game.
Compete for the pole
Never in the turbo-hybrid era has a Mercedes not been in pole position at the Circuit of The Americas, a record from 2014 until our last race in 2019.
These statistics will worry Red Bull, as will Christian Horner’s fears that the Mercedes engine has developed further in the last few races. It used to be smaller wings, now we can no longer match. “
READ MORE: Horner claims Mercedes made “phenomenal” profits with the unit
Straight-ahead speed is a factor in Austin given the track’s 1,100-meter straights, while Max Verstappen has not been the fastest in a conventional qualifying (including Friday qualifying in Italy) since the Dutch Grand Prix.
But in terms of downforce, the Austin teams pick the upper end of the scale due to the many slow corners on the track and Suzuka-like esses, a factor that should play to the strengths of Red Bull and the RB16B.
Horner worries about what he sees as a leap in performance from Mercedes
Verstappen’s main title rival Lewis Hamilton is statistically the king of the COTA Poles, with three out of eight here in his name – although it was Valtteri Bottas who was the last driver on pole here in 2019, as Hamilton endured what he endured as one of his designated worst qualifying sessions to reach 5th place on the grid.
READ MORE: F1’s Return to COTA, Ferrari vs McLaren, and More – 5 Fascinating storylines ahead of the US GP
It is worth noting that the Austin race has never been won by a driver who did not start in the front row.
Pole positions 2015-2019:
- 2019 – Valtteri Bottas (Mercedes)
- 2018 – Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes)
- 2017 – Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes)
- 2016 – Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes)
- 2015 – Nico Rosberg (Mercedes)
FAN VIEW: On Saturday we have another pretty close race between Lewis Hamilton and Max Verstappen for P1 on the Austin grid, but this time it’s the reigning World Champion who leads the way. Mercedes seems to have found extra pace from somewhere, and F1 players absolutely noticed.
ONBOARD: Valtteri Botta’s Pirelli pole position lap
In the mix to victory
Another quote from Christian Horner from Red Bull’s extensive brawl at Mercedes in Turkey: “We know that the next race in Austin has been a Hamilton stronghold for several years.”
He’s not wrong either. Hamilton has a total of five wins at COTA and won the first race here in 2012 before completing four races from 2014 to 2017. However, he had to watch in the last two parts as two Finns, first Kimi Räikkönen, then Bottas, took the win.
TREMAYNE: Bottas can rarely have tasted so good in Turkey after his year out of hell
Verstappen may not have the same caliber of results, but he’s in great shape at COTA too. Fourth here for Toro Rosso in 2015, has held that position or higher since retiring in 2016.
He also crossed the finish line in the top three here twice after starting outside the top 15, in 2017 (before a penalty banned him to P4, which you can see again in the video below) and in 2018 when he finished second. In 2019 he was also P3.
How Verstappen won P3 on Austin’s last lap – and lost
Bottas is the youngest winner, both in Austin and in Formula 1, after driving flawlessly in Turkey to his first win since Russia 2020.
But with Hamilton now six points behind Verstappen in the drivers’ standings after deploying a new internal combustion engine in Istanbul, it would be surprising if Red Bull and Mercedes would use Sergio Perez and Bottas in something other than helping Verstappen and Hamilton for them remaining six races of 2021.
READ MORE: Mercedes will be “aggressive” in the final races of 2021, Wolff swears
Wins 2015-2019:
- 2019 – Valtteri Bottas (Mercedes)
- 2018 – Kimi Raikkonen (Ferrari)
- 2017 – Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes)
- 2016 – Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes)
- 2015 – Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes)
FAN VIEW: Hamilton is ahead in the F1 game here too, but the race is much, much closer. There’s hardly anything between Lewis and Verstappen as they go into the final races of this thrilling title fight. Valtteri Bottas also finds good support after his sovereign victory in Turkey last time.
Hamilton sprayed the crowd after taking his fifth Austin win in 2017
Podium outsider
Sergio Perez was finally back on the podium after eight races in Turkey and will be happy to do it again this weekend, on a track where he has scored points in six of eight attempts.
Ferrari appears to have taken a practical step in performance after introducing its new hybrid system in recent races.
READ MORE: Binotto Reveals A Hybrid System With New Specs Was Key To A Strong Ferrari Performance In Istanbul
Carlos Sainz also has a good record in Austin as he always landed in the points here, while the low-speed performance of the Ferrari SF21 should help in the shaky last sector at COTA.
McLaren will of course be their most important opponents this weekend, these two teams are well over 100 points ahead of the next best squad (Alpine) in the battle for P3 among the constructors. McLaren can fall back on Daniel Ricciardo’s two-time podium experience in Austin, while the Australian beat current team-mate Lando Norris to P6 in our last race here in 2019.
Podiums 2015-2019:
- Mercedes – 8
- Ferrari – 4th
- Red Bull – 3rd
FAN VIEW: Aside from the obvious decisions, Botta’s and Verstappen’s Red Bull team-mate Sergio Perez, it’s Ferrari vs. McLaren that are ahead in F1 Play. Charles Leclerc is set to do well again after a good fourth place in Turkey while Lando Norris is supported to recover from a disappointing P7 in Istanbul.
RACE HIGHLIGHTS: 2019 United States Grand Prix
Point potential
After Mercedes, Ferrari and Red Bull, Alpine / Renault actually had the most successes at COTA in recent years with 40 points between 2015 and 2019. Fernando Alonso and Esteban Ocon also have good records here, Alonso here on the podium in 2012 and (probably more impressive) P5 here for McLaren-Honda in 2016 – while Ocon was P6 in Austin for Force India in 2017.
READ MORE: “It’s a 100 Race Project” – CEO Laurent Rossi outlines Alpine’s roadmap to get to the top of F1
Fifth-placed Alpine currently leads rival AlphaTauri with 12 points in the constructors’ championship, while this was statistically not the best route for AlphaTauri lead driver Pierre Gasly, as Gasly never finished above P12 here. Gasly’s team-mate Yuki Tsunoda, on the other hand, like Mick Schumacher, Nikita Mazepin and Nicholas Latifi, has never driven here.
Looking at the shape in the lower half of the grid, Aston Martin driver Sebastian Vettel is the one-time winner here (2013) and was also on the podium in 2012, 2015 and 2017. He hasn’t scored a point since then. Spa however, so it would be appropriate at this point to channel a COTA shape.
Vettel celebrates his COTA victory in 2013
Kimi Räikkönen was now in the points again in Russia and is hoping for more on a track where he set the record for most races (114) between two Grand Prix victories in 2018 – while he also finished third here in 2017.
READ MORE: From Malaysia 2003 to Austin 2018 – Raikkonen’s best wins ranked from 10 – 1
Points 2015-2019:
- Mercedes – 189
- Ferrari – 110
- Red Bull – 71
- Renault / Lotus – 40
- Racing Point / Force India – 31
- McLaren – Sept.
- AlphaTauri / Red Bull – 29
- Williams – 8
- Alfa Romeo / Sauber – 3rd
- Haas – 1
FAN VIEW: Pierre Gasly (P6) and Carlos Sainz (P8) have scored points in Turkey and F1 players appreciate their chances of scoring more points in Texas. The former world champions Fernando Alonso and Sebastian Vettel are again strongly supported, while McLaren’s Daniel Ricciardo is comparatively weak.
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