With the two title protagonists Max Verstappen and Lewis Hamilton, who start in the front row of the US GP in 2021, the heat of the championship fight was increased again. Meanwhile, Red Bull Racing has successfully reached the pace of the Mercedes, which lost momentum after dominating the first sessions before qualifying.
History has favored Hamilton at the Circuit of the Americas, with the Brit taking five wins on the track. For this year’s edition, however, other factors speak in favor of Verstappen and Red Bull Racing.
Verstappen could have a significant advantage over Hamilton in the USGP
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While the track layout suits Hamilton’s driving style, it’s the high-rake concept of the Red Bull Racing car that works better on this track. The bumpy road surface further exacerbates the problems of the Mercedes low-rake chassis concept.
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<p>Of the four sessions so far, including qualifying, FP1 on Friday was the only time that the Silver Arrows looked strong. In FP2, Verstappen’s one-lap pace was masked as the Dutchman focused on his long runs, but FP3 was a clear indicator of how well-balanced the two teams vying for the title are.</p>
<p>In terms of long-term pace on the midsize tires, the Red Bull Racing cars looked just as strong as the Mercedes. Sometimes they seemed more agile on the track while Hamilton and Bottas battled for grip.</p>
<p>Mercedes’ new diffuser stall and front wing design only improved the overall balance, but the performance benefit isn’t that significant.</p>
<p>That’s P2 and P4 in the #USGP qualifying! <br><br><br><img src=)
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However, the Red Bull Racing car seems to be just as fast on the straights and through the corners of the second and third sections of the track. Looking at the lap time averages of Mercedes and Red Bull Racing drivers, the former do not seem to have a significant advantage over the latter.
The lap time averages of the four drivers were as follows:
|
driver |
tires |
Number of laps |
Average time |
|
Lewis Hamilton |
middle |
5 |
1: 41.233 |
|
Sergio Perez |
middle |
5 |
1: 41.251 |
|
Valtteri Bottas |
middle |
5 |
1: 41.404 |
|
Max Verstappen |
middle |
5 |
1: 41.413 |
Hamilton’s pace can’t be representative as the Brit made a pit stop during his session to adjust the flap on his front wing. That cooled the tires, making it easier to set faster times when the session resumed, with the difference between him and Perez being less than a tenth of a second. In reality, Perez’s cross-country pace on the medium terrain could potentially be faster than Hamilton’s.
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<p>The gap between Bottas and Verstappen’s lap average is also less than a tenth of a second. However, Bottas had overhauled his tires during the session and they suffered from heavy wear. A rough and bumpy track surface only made matters worse, and while the Finn was doing his lap times, his tires were on the edge towards the end. In racing conditions, severe deterioration can lead to dramatic results.</p>
<p>From “great advantage” to “closer than ever”, the top 10 of # FP2 were covered by a little more than a second <br><br><br><img src=)
This weekend was just wide open #USGP # F1 @ MercedesAMGF1From ‘great advantage’ to ‘closer than ever’, the Top 10 of # FP2 were covered by just over a second 
Distance limits and race pace were the talking point in the second practice but it looks like we’ll get a close fight on Sunday 
This weekend just flew far 
#USGP # F1 @ MercedesAMGF1 https://t.co/iPksvH1swH
The uninterrupted racing simulations of Verstappen and Perez are more representative than the lap times of Mercedes. It is therefore not surprising that the Red Bull Racing cars are at least a tenth of a second faster than Mercedes during the race on the medium mixes. Hard rubber tires are also suitable for Verstappen’s car, especially in warmer temperatures.
The final reason Hamilton could be at a disadvantage is his position on the track. Despite having won races in the past after starting runner-up at this track, this time Verstappen has placed his team-mate Perez just behind Hamilton in the row.
“It’s the first non-Mercedes Pole here in the hybrid era and the first time we’ve had two cars against one, so another milestone for us.” Christian on the # USGP qualifying 
win.gs/USGPQualiTW
“It is the first non-Mercedes Pole here in the hybrid era and the first time that we had two cars against one, so another milestone for us US.” Christian about the # USGP qualifying
win.gs/USGPQualiTW https://t.co/PKUvVldQBR
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Since Bottas is ninth further down the grid due to a starting penalty, Hamilton will fend off two Red Bull Racing drivers in the first laps of the race. His teammate Bottas won’t help a lot until later in the race, and that’s enough time for Verstappen to run away in the lead or even downgrade for Perez, Hamilton to third. Alpha Tauri drivers in the top 10 (Pierre Gasly and Yuki Tsunoda in 8th and 10th) cannot be downgraded either, so that is up to three possible wingmen for Verstappen.
A high success rate at this track may not be enough to prove Hamilton’s advantage in the race. The Briton will have to show exceptional racing skills to claim his sixth win at COTA and regain the title lead, while for Verstappen, winning the Hamilton area may not be as challenging as it seemed a week ago.
Edited by Sandeep Banerjee
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