In an exciting season, Mercedes and Lewis Hamilton have traded punches with Red Bull and Max Verstappen year-round, with the advantage shifting from race to race. On a track that is new for Formula 1, our Qatar Grand Prix picks are breaking in the direction it will swing this weekend.
We’ll be racing in Qatar for the first time this weekend as this weekend’s F1 betting will take place outside the Losail Circuit in Doha.
A dominant performance by Lewis Hamilton last weekend gave him the best chance of winning the Qatar Grand Prix before this weekend, but as the season has shown, anything can happen when the cars leave the pits. There is even more uncertainty in Formula 1 betting this weekend as a new track makes its debut.
We have everything you need to know before the race this weekend, with the full F1 odds below and our tips on the Qatar Grand Prix.
Selection for the Qatar Grand Prix
The selection will be made on 11/17/2021 at 3:15 p.m. ET.
Click on each selection to jump to the full analysis.
Qatar F1 Grand Prix odds
| driver | Chances of winning the Qatar Grand Prix |
|---|---|
| Lewis Hamilton | -150 |
| Max Verstappen | +162 |
| Valtteri Bottas | +1,400 |
| Sergio Perez | +1,600 |
| Charles Leclerc | +5,000 |
| Lando Norris | +6,600 |
| Carlos Sainz | +6,600 |
| Pierre Gasly | +10,000 |
| Daniel Ricciardo | +10,000 |
| George Russell | +25,000 |
| Fernando Alonso | +25,000 |
| Sebastian Vettel | +25,000 |
| Esteban Ocon | +25,000 |
| Lance walk | +50,000 |
| Yuki Tsunoda | +50,000 |
| Nicholas Latifi | +50,000 |
| Kimi Raikkonen | +50,000 |
| Antonio Giovinazzi | +50,000 |
| Mick Schumacher | +50,000 |
| Nikita Mazepin | +50,000 |
Odds courtesy of bet365 on Nov 17th.
Where does the Qatar Grand Prix take place?
The Qatar Grand Prix will be held at the Losail International Circuit, with F1 races taking place on the track for the first time. The track opened in 2004 but has been mainly used for MotoGP since then and appears regularly on this calendar.
The route has a long start-finish straight and otherwise consists of over a dozen winding bends with mostly high-speed bends. Due to the MotoGP purpose of the track, most of the overtaking maneuvers will take place on the start / finish straight at Turn One, as the track is relatively narrow for modern F1 cars. The strategy will also play a major role, as the series of curves entail considerable tire wear.
Tips and recommendations for the Qatar F1 Grand Prix
Tip: race win – Max Verstappen (+162)
With Formula 1 making its debut on this track, we have limited data to work with. Throughout the season we saw the championships swing back and forth between Red Bull / Max Verstappen and Mercedes / Lewis Hamilton, depending on the route. Hamilton’s dominant performance in Brazil last weekend was encouraging for the defending champions and a reason for him to be preferred here, but with +162 to win the race, Verstappen has good value.
What we know about this track is that downforce will be absolutely critical in any part of the track outside of the 14-corner start / finish straight. We know these sectors will greatly benefit Red Bull and Verstappen. So it just depends on how much speed Verstappen can create to Hamilton in these sectors and how much advantage Hamilton and Mercedes give them on the start-finish straight.
In all likelihood, by Saturday’s qualifying, we’ll have a pretty good sense of who should win, but if all the signs suggest that Red Bull’s downforce is more valuable than Mercedes’s, then Verstappen’s chances will quickly decline. It’s worth staying ahead of the weekend’s data and getting Verstappen to win at these odds, but it’s also worth winning either him (+225) or Hamilton (+175) for both qualifying and the race to cite.
Tip: fastest lap – Valtteri Bottas (+450)
We are now in the final. Both title fights are coming to an end, so every single point is of the utmost importance. We saw that in action last weekend when Red Bull pitted Sergio Perez, comfortably between four and five, to get fresh tires and a chance at the fastest lap to deduct a point from Hamilton. Given that time window exists, we will be sure that either Red Bull or Mercedes will do something similar in every remaining race this season.
On a circuit in Qatar that will be both difficult to overtake and to follow, the front runners should be able to create a sizable gap from the rest of the grid. Aside from one racing incident, this should mean that Verstappen, Hamilton, Perez and Valtteri Bottas will be working with enough pace advantage to pit towards the end of the race for fresh tires and a chance for the fastest lap.
Either Bottas (+450) or Perez (+400) are good value for money to get the fastest lap, especially when compared to Hamilton and Verstappen (+187) since they have the car to do so and their teams before that showed a quick trigger by bringing them in at the end to do so. Bottas has four fastest laps this season while Perez has two. If we want Verstappen to win this weekend, which we do, that would probably put Perez in third and Bottas in fourth, so the Finn is more likely to be used for the fastest lap.
Tip: Top 6 placement – Pierre Gasly (+110)
On a track with no prior information, it’s difficult to find a bet value on the grid this weekend. The two Red Bulls and two Mercedes are likely to occupy four of the top 6 places. The other two were to be taken over by Ferrari, with both Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz Jr. being very consistent through the second half of the season, Ferrari’s new engine doing wonders, and their aero advantage at this track being beneficial.
At least one of Sainz or Leclerc has finished in the top five in each of the last seven races, while finishing fifth and sixth in consecutive races. The best value for a top 6 finish for either Ferrari, however, is Sainz at -200, while a podium finish is too unlikely for either of them to come behind. (Granted, at +500 Leclerc could be worth a flyer as a new route on the grid should favor the most talented drivers, of which he is certainly one.)
So if we want to take someone with us who breaks the hegemony of the top 6 from Red Bull, Mercedes and Ferrari, why not Pierre 6asly himself. The AlphaTauri driver finished sixth on the grid this year, in 13 of 18 races in the top 6 qualified (and six times exactly sixth) and finished in the top 6 in seven of the 15 races that he has completed. With +110 we are behind one of the most consistent drivers this season, who finds himself in a car that, like Red Bull, has the kind of downforce that should bring an advantage outside the start-finish straight.
Starting grid for the Qatar Grand Prix
After qualifying for the Qatar Grand Prix, stop by for the grid for Sunday’s race.
Former winners of the Qatar Grand Prix
This is the first Qatar Grand Prix so there are no previous winners, but the Grand Prix will return to the F1 calendar for a 10-year period in 2023.
How to bet on Formula 1
The most popular way to bet on Formula 1 odds is to simply pick the winner of a particular race. Other popular F1 betting options include which car / designer wins and whether or not a particular racer will finish on the podium with a top 3 finish.
The odds for F1 races usually look like this:
This means that if Vettel wins that particular race, if Vettel wins $ 100 you will win $ 650. If a driver is particularly dominant, you may see a minus sign (-) in front of that driver’s odds, like this:
This means that if Hamilton wins the race, you have to wager $ 175 to win $ 100.
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