For the first time since the infamous 2019 race in Montreal, Formula 1 returns to the Circuit Gilles Villeneuve for the Canadian Grand Prix this weekend. It’s the third consecutive street circuit for F1 and the second high-speed track in a row, after Baku a week ago.
The championship leader Max Verstappen, who took the checkered flag last weekend in Baku, is the Canadian Grand Prix odds favorite. Will Red Bull and Verstappen continue their excellent form after a frustrating start to the F1 season?
We’ll answer that question and more with our Canadian Grand Prix picks and predictions.
Canadian Grand Prix picks and predictions
Post qualifying picks
Picks made on 6/18/2022 at 6:30 pm ET.
Pre-qualifying predictions
Picks made on 6/17/2022 at 3:00 pm ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Canadian Grand Prix picks (post qualifying)
Fastest lap and race win pick
Between tragic strategy decisions and middling performances from second driver Carlos Sainz Jr., it’s been made clear in recent races that the Constructors’ Championship is Red Bull’s to lose — with Ferrari far from the picture. That notion has only been furthered this weekend in Montreal.
For as strong of a driver as Charles Leclerc is on a single-lap basis, Max Verstappen and Red Bull have ruled the weekend. As a result, Verstappen is a huge -275 favorite — but we can get him to win and take the fastest lap at +120, which is great value.
The championship leader topped both practice sessions on Friday and then was barely tested in qualifying on Saturday, amid rapidly changing conditions. Verstappen topped Q1, finished 1.102 seconds up on Fernando Alonso in Q2, and then took pole by over six tenths in Q3.
This is a circuit in which Red Bull’s power unit should give the team a considerable advantage over everyone else, with Verstappen unlikely to be challenged for the win. He has been the quickest driver all weekend, and in the quickest car, the fastest lap will be there for him to take along with the checkered flag.
peck: Max Verstappen – Fastest lap and race win (+120 at bet365)
Race match pick
In a relatively poor start to the season for Mercedes, it has been newcomer George Russell, not Lewis Hamilton, who has been consistently impressed. Russell has out-qualified Hamilton, 5-4, and finished in the top 5 at every single race so far.
One of Hamilton’s four qualifying victories over Russell came on Saturday in Montreal and while it landed him a season-best fourth spot on the grid, it wasn’t representative of Hamilton’s weekend compared to Russell.
Prior to Q3, when Hamilton secured his second-row start, Russell had posted quicker times than Hamilton in FP1, FP2, FP3, Q1, and Q2. Not only had Russell been quicker in every session but the gap was jarring, with Russell in the Top 3 in multiple sessions, while Hamilton ended Friday by saying the car was a “disaster.”
Yet, Hamilton found himself ahead of Russell in Q3 because the latter was the lone driver to try slick tires as the session neared an end, with the track getting drier and drier. It was a gamble that would’ve (likely) given him pole had it worked out but the track wasn’t yet dry enough, with Russell sliding off almost immediately.
As a result of Russell’s ill-fated gamble, he’ll start eighth on the grid tomorrow. However, the long back straight in Montreal will provide him with plenty of overtaking opportunities, and with just Esteban Ocon and two Haas’ standing between the two Mercedes drivers, they’ll be fighting for track position at some point.
Hamilton came out of Saturday with the better position but as has been the case all season, Russell can come out of Sunday having beaten his teammate.
peck: George Russell – Higher finish than Lewis Hamilton (+150 at bet365)
Canadian Grand Prix predictions (pre-qualifying)
Race winner pick
Ahead of the Azerbaijan Grand Prix, Max Verstappen was favoured, and rightly so. Even after qualifying third on Saturday, there was a tremendous amount of confidence in the Red Bull driver’s race pace delivering on Sunday.
Sure enough, the Dutchman would cruise to victory untroubled by two retired Ferraris or his teammate, Sergio Perez, who had been quicker around Baku in the sessions prior to the race. At another high-speed street circuit this weekend, we’re expecting a similarly dominant showing for Red Bull.
While Baku and Montreal aren’t totally alike, they do share one crucial characteristic: An incredibly long straight. The run to the line in Baku is the longest in F1, around two kilometers long. The second longest straight? In Montreal, out of the hairpin, down to turn 13.
Verstappen and Perez made tremendous gains on the straight in Baku, and that will be the case again in Montreal. At a rapid circuit, we’re happily backing the best driver on the grid with the most powerful engine. Count on Verstappen to take a second straight win and extend his championship lead.
peck: Max Verstappen – Race winner (-163 at bet365)
Double podium pick
Just as we’re going back to Verstappen to win the race, we’re again looking at Perez to join him on the podium and give Red Bull a fourth straight double podium finish. And, like our reasoning for picking Verstappen to win again, the outlook here hasn’t changed much from a week ago.
For starters, Red Bull’s power will be dominant in Montreal, and its primary competitor, Ferrari, will be worse off.
A technical directive was issued this week to limit the amount of porpoising allowed, forcing teams to make adjustments that will hinder performance. While Red Bull has been largely unaffected by porpoising this season, Ferrari — despite all the promise it’s shown — has struggled a considerable amount with it.
It was prevalent at a high-speed street circuit in Melbourne, so changes will be made in a similar setting in Montreal, and its performance will suffer as a result.
We can have full confidence in Perez to take advantage of the opportunity in Montreal, too, with the Mexican driver in blistering form this season. Perez has five podium finishes in eight races this season, finishing fourth in two others while he retired in Bahrain.
Red Bull is the best car on the grid and at a track that suits its strengths. With the Top 2 in the Drivers’ Championship in its cars, there’s no reason Red Bull can’t take another double podium.
peck: Red Bull – Double podium (-163 at bet365)
