The second of three sprint races will take place at the Red Bull Ring in Spielberg this weekend, with Saturday’s sprint to set the grid for Sunday’s Grand Prix.
On pole for Saturday’s sprint, and looking to retain that position for Sunday’s race, is Max Verstappen. The Austrian Grand Prix odds favorite is cruising in the Drivers’ Championship and now gets a chance to extend his lead at Red Bull’s home — where he has won three times before.
We dive into the F1 betting market ahead of the weekend in Spielberg with our Austrian Grand Prix picks and predictions.
Austrian Grand Prix picks and predictions
Pre-qualifying predictions
Picks made on 7/8/2022 at 3:00 pm ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Best F1 bonuses
If you’re signing up for a new sportsbook for some F1 betting, here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) New users with Caesars can bet $20 and get $200 in free bets! Sign Up Now
B) New users can get two risk-free bets up to $2,000 at PointsBet! Sign Up Now
*Eligible USA locations only
Austrian GP predictions (pre-qualifying)
Point finish pick
It was a brutal Friday for McLaren, with Daniel Ricciardo unable to get out of Q1 and Lando Norris’ car issues preventing him from posting a competitive Q2 time. While Ricciardo’s struggles are expected at this point, Norris’ Friday was not representative of his pace — and there’s a reason for that.
Norris’ Friday woes began in FP1, when he had to retire the car due to a power unit issue. With a quick turnaround to qualifying, the team was up against it and it showed. Luckily, Norris and McLaren have two more sessions to right the ship, and Norris should be trusted to do so.
Ahead of the weekend, McLaren had expressed confidence in its car’s issues being mitigated at the high-speed Red Bull Ring, and even with Norris’ brake issues in qualifying, he made it to Q2. After qualifying, he said he thought they had the pace to get into Q3 had there not been an issue.
Provided Norris’ car’s issues are solved, that pace should show through over the remainder of the weekend, as Norris’ pace has shined both this season and in previous races in Austria.
Norris has finished in the points in seven of nine races he has completed this year, and in five races at the Red Bull Ring in F1, has finished no worse than sixth, with a pair of third- and fifth-place finishes as well.
Norris will start in 15th for the sprint race, but with the additional session, he’ll have plenty of time to make up places needed to crack the top 10 and finish in the points.
peck: Lando Norris – Points finish (-138 at bet365)
Both cars points finish pick
It has been a positive start to the season for Alpine, with the French team expected to fight for fourth in the Constructors’ Championship.
The positivity carried into Austria, where Alpine’s strong speed — it’s the second-quickest straight-line car on the grid this season — was expected to keep it as competitive as it has been in recent races, with three double points finishes in the last five races.
Ahead of Friday’s qualifying, the team said it expected to be the fourth quickest car around the Red Bull Ring, and early returns are promising.
In FP1, Fernando Alonso finished eighth while Esteban Ocon finished 12th, despite both drivers posting their quickest times on medium tires, while those around them did their fast laps on soft tires.
Qualifying was a further success for Alpine, as both cars made Q3 and will start the sprint fifth (Ocon) and eighth (Alonso).
Already well-positioned to secure its fifth double points finish of the season, Alpine should remain near the front of the midfield over the rest of the weekend and come home with both cars in the top 10 again.
peck: Alpine – Both cars points finish (-150 at bet365)
Norris (Top 6 finishes (+800)
He’s finished in the top 6 in two of the last four races run on the season, including all five times on this race track in F1 competition. In fact, Norris was in the top 5 in each of the last four tries here just last season.
While McLaren has struggled a bit with outright pace in 2022, do you really think Norris loses four spots on the grid in a 12-month span? The race last week saw them improve their pace on the season and there’s no reason to think that they’ll drop off that much a week later.
Sure, Norris had his issues in the first practice and is starting in the 11th spot for Sunday’s event. But, we’ve seen a lot of attrition (33 cars taken out this season alone), so he could make up a few more spots if the top drivers are unable to finish as past trends have shown.
peck: Lando Norris – Top 6 finish (+800 at bet365)
Most Team Points – Red Bull (-175)
This is essentially their home track and they’ve had both cars finish on the podium in three of the last five races of the season.
Ferrari haven’t put two cars on the podium in any of the last five races run on the season, and will lack in pace to their competition. They’re a fringe podium team on Sunday but their starting spots could hamper that too. McLaren has gone a bit backward in the pace department as well, which is why this opens up two spots for Red Bull if they can handle it.
Max Verstappen has won four of the last six races in Austria and is already having a near-perfect weekend, which is why I feel like he’s due for the win. That means Sergio Perez just needs to finish 2nd or 3rd, and he starts in 5th on Sunday.
Perez has four straight Top 6 finishes in Austria and considering he’s having a better season this year than last, you have to expect him to move up the pecking order a bit this weekend. Plus, Red Bull Racing has produced the second most podiums scored on this track over the last five years and has accumulated the second-most points too in that same span.
This season, eight of the 10 races run have seen at least two of the top 3 starters finish on the podium. Out of the 30 podium positions available in 2022, 29 of them started in the Top 5.
Pick: Most Team Points – Red Bull (-175 at bet365)
Number Of Race Leaders: 1 (+350)
Verstappen finished first in practice on Friday and was also first in qualifying a few hours later. On Saturday, he was third in Practice 2 and won the sprint race. Now, can he produce a perfect weekend?
There have been 12 straight races in Austria where the winner has come from a Top 4 starting position, as well as all 10 races run in 2022 at that. In fact, one could make a case that the pole winner is the race winner.
We’ve seen the pole winner in Austria triumph a day later six times since 2016, including four straight here and two straight on the season. Verstappen says his car is better than the one we’ve seen in practice and qualifying, and the sprint race proved that.
Charles LeClerc has only won two of the last 17 races in Austria. This doesn’t bode well for LeClerc, especially when he already mentioned he’s not going to be as aggressive this weekend since he just wants a good finish.
This race had no lead changes in three of the last four tries. This means that not only can Verstappen pull away at the start, but he may never look back either.
Pick: Number Of Race Leaders – 1 (+350 at bet365)
