Not for the first time, Honda has shocked the F1 world with a big announcement – that they will be leaving F1 at the end of 2021. This has obvious implications for their clients Red Bull and AlphaTauri, as well as their drivers, and Max Verstappen in particular. What happens next? We unpack the key questions…
1. Did Red Bull expect this?
Honda told the Red Bull family in August that the company was re-evaluating its long-term strategy and that this would include its participation in Formula 1 beyond the end of 2021 when their current deal with Red Bull and AlphaTauri expires.
The Covid-19 pandemic has put extreme pressure on global car companies, making it increasingly difficult for Honda’s board of directors to continue to sanction significant funds being poured into the F1 motorsport project.
Despite the success Honda has had with Red Bull and AlphaTauri, including five wins and tallying, their motorsport boss Masashi Yamamoto has constantly fought with the manufacturer’s board of directors to keep them in F1.
Honda’s Toyoharu Tanabe looks on in the Red Bull Racing pits during the final practice session ahead of the F1 Russian Grand Prix at the Sochi Autodrom
Unfortunately, that last fight was one he failed to win and they informed Red Bull of their final decision at the end of September. Red Bull has since had a few days to think about the next steps before making the official announcement on October 2nd.
2. Will it affect their competitiveness in the next year and a half?
Honda President, CEO and Representative Director Takahiro Hachigo says their goal is to win the F1 World Championship next year before parting ways with the series.
Honda has shown throughout their time in F1 that they always give their all to strive for success, no matter how much pressure the challenges put on their shoulders. So there is no reason to believe that Red Bull and AlphaTauri’s performance will be affected.
READ MORE: Bringing the power – How Honda created a front-running F1 engine again
The Japanese manufacturer continues to work hard on the powerplant for next year, but with no engine to develop until the end of 2021 it’s natural that there will be some impact on performance.
There will also be a final spending budget for that period, which won’t be breached given the change in policy, so that could affect things should Honda run into problems with their new spec.
Honda wants to win the world title with Red Bull before leaving
3. Will Red Bull stay in F1?
Yes. Red Bull has signed on the dotted line to remain in Formula 1 with both its factory team and AlphaTauri until at least the end of 2025, so there’s no indication they will be leaving with Honda.
READ MORE: Red Bull ‘committed’ to Formula 1, evaluating power unit options following Honda departure news
As team principal Christian Horner said, they’ve been here before and found a way forward, so there’s no reason to believe a company of their size and resources can’t do it again.
4. Who will be driving Red Bull and AlphaTauri in 2022?
Under the current rules, Red Bull’s old friends Renault would be obliged to supply them and AlphaTauri with engines as they currently have the fewest customers.
Red Bull would likely want to avoid rekindling that relationship, while Renault also can’t imagine them feeling so hurt towards the end of their time together.
READ MORE: Red Bull has ‘missed a trick’ in its F1 approach, says Renault boss Abiteboul
But they may not have a choice. Red Bull just doesn’t have enough time to get a new manufacturer excited about the sport in time for 2022.
That means it’s either Renault again or they can convince Ferrari or Mercedes to supply them. Given that they failed to lure either of them last try, it’s unlikely the outcome will be any different this time.
Following Honda’s exit, Red Bull’s sister team AlphaTauri are also looking for an engine for 2022
Red Bull may only have to endure short-term pain while they either try to get their own engine project off the ground or convince a new manufacturer to join the party.
With ongoing discussions about a revised engine formula for 2026, a new manufacturer might want to wait until then.
5. What does this mean for Max Verstappen?
Max Verstappen will not have been thrilled with this morning’s news.
He will likely have known about the news release in advance, but it’s a hammer blow for the Dutchman given the uncertainty it creates at a team he only recently pledged to stay with until the end of 2023.
Verstappen has been very supportive of Honda since they joined the team and has been encouraged in where they are taking the project. The prospect of a return to Renault, which he was critical of during their time together, does not look good.
Contract details remain private, but there are usually clauses that allow flexibility in the event of a major change like this.
He’ll remain calm while Red Bull hatches a plan, but you’d guess he’s also considering his options, as most drivers routinely do. In terms of spots at the other two ‘Big 3’ teams, Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz are tied at Ferrari until the end of 2024 and 2022 respectively, so his chances of a potential opening there are slim.
Verstappen made Honda the winner again, his most recent victory coming at the 70th Anniversary GP – but will the news affect his future at Red Bull?
Lewis Hamilton is expected to sign a new deal with Mercedes that will likely keep him with the team until at least late 2022. Even if the seat next to him is vacant, will he really want to race alongside the current six-time world champion?
On the other hand, we’ve seen recently that contracts can be terminated early, with Racing Point doing just that with Sergio Perez, so a carousel of F1’s biggest names isn’t impossible.
In any case, these are interesting times for one of F1’s highest rated young stars.
6. Now what for Honda Young Gun Yuki Tsunoda?
Yuki Tsunoda made his mark in his debut year in the Formula 2 F1 feeder series, the Honda-backed driver winning two races and moving up to third in the Drivers’ Championship.
Above all, if he can hold this position for the last two race weekends in Bahrain, the 20-year-old will have enough super license points to drive in Formula 1.
Up-and-coming Japanese F2 driver Yuki Tsunoda will test for AlphaTauri later this year
AlphaTauri is already planning to start Tsunoda – Honda’s top F1 prospect in years – at the final young driver test in Abu Dhabi, which follows the season finale in December, to assess its potential for next year.
Should he pick up the points – and impress enough behind the wheel at Yas Marina – he would normally be in a good position to make his F1 debut with AlphaTauri next season.
However, Honda’s departure from F1 in late 2021 casts doubt on continued support for up-and-coming racers – including Tsunoda – and it remains to be seen whether Red Bull would keep him as a young driver.
