All eyes seem to be on Mercedes as the Formula One circus rocks up in Le Castellet next weekend for a 2022 French Grand Prix no-one seems able to predict.
While Ferrari and Red Bull have so-far dominated the 2022 F1 calendar, the paddock is expecting a big push from Mercedes at the Circuit Paul Ricard.
Lewis Hamilton and George Russell have not had the best of seasons. The seven-time world champion has seen his rival Max Verstappen move on from last year’s animosity to go wheel-to-wheel with Charles Leclerc instead. Russell, meanwhile, is making the best of a bad deal in a car that continues to bamboozle his new team.
Most expect Mercedes’ current misfortunes – they are firmly third in the F1 constructors’ championship – to dry up once car floor flexing regulations are implemented after the summer break.
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But the Silver Arrows don’t need to hang around for regulation changes to gun for the race win next weekend. That is according to, it seems, pretty much everyone in the sport.
Ex-Renault driver Jolyon Palmer, writing in his Formula1.com column, reckons Mercedes are primed to conquer Paul Ricard but must get qualifying right.
“[It] is one of the smoothest circuits, made up of predominantly medium and high-speed corners,” Palmer says. “Mercedes have always gone well there in the past and it surely poses their best chance of fighting for victory on merit so far this year.”
He adds: “So far, the Mercedes race pace has been significantly better than their qualifying form. If they hope to win in France, they must show more one-lap pace on Saturday to get themselves in the mix at the start.
When is the next F1 race?
Friday 22 July
- French Grand Prix Practice 1 – 1pm start
- French Grand Prix Practice 2 – 4pm start
Saturday 23 July
- French Grand Prix Practice 3 – 12pm start
- French Grand Prix Qualifying – 3pm start
Sunday 24 July
- French Grand Prix – 2pm start
All broadcasts on Sky Sports F1
“It’s one thing having race pace to match the leaders but when you concede as much track position as they are doing at the moment, a victory fight will always be tough – and that’s what has cost them in the last couple of races.”
It is the same sentiment with Red Bull boss Christian Horner, who is readying his drivers Verstappen and Sergio Perez for the expected Mercedes assault.
“We’ll expect them to be quick in Ricard. They’re showing flashes of being there or thereabouts,” says Horner. “The last two races have been pretty decent for them and there’s been no sign I think of any porpoising at all, so they seem to be slowly bringing themselves back into the game. I think they’ll be a contender.”
F1 standings
Drivers’ championship:
- 1 Max Verstappen (Ned) 208pts
- 2 Charles Leclerc (Mon) 170
- 3 Sergio Perez (Mex) 151
- 4 Carlos Sainz Jr (Spa) 133
- 5 George Russell (Gbr) 128
- 6 Lewis Hamilton (Gbr) 109
- 7 Lando Norris (Gbr) 64
- 8 Esteban Ocon (Fra) 52
- 9 Valtteri Bottas (Fin) 46
- 10 Fernando Alonso (Spa) 29
- 11 Kevin Magnussen (Den) 22
- 12 Daniel Ricciardo (Aus) 17
- 13 Pierre Gasly (Fra) 16
- 14 Sebastian Vettel (Ger) 15
- 15 Mick Schumacher (Ger) 12
- 16 Yuki Tsunoda (Jpn) 11
- 17 Guanyuzhou (Chn) 5
- 18 Alexander Albon (Tha) 3
- 19 Lance Stroll (Can) 3
- 20 Nicholas Latifi (Can) 0
- 21 Nico Hulkenberg (Ger) 0
Constructors championship:
- 1 Red Bull 359pts
- 2 Ferrari 30
- 3 Mercedes GP 237
- 4 McLaren 81
- 5 Alpine 81
- 6 Alfa Romeo Racing 51
- 7 Haas F1 34
- 8 Scuderia AlphaTauri 27
- 9 Aston Martin 18
- 10 Williams 3
Why the Paul Ricard track could suit Mercedes
Hamilton was denied a third French Grand Prix when Verstappen (left) overtook him late in last year’s race (Photo: Getty)
There have only been three grands prix at Paul Ricard since the circuit’s return to the F1 calendar in 2018, yet Mercedes have certainly enjoyed the best of the spoils.
Hamilton won here in 2018 and 2019, and was shunted into the second last year only by Max Verstappen, who passed the Briton with two laps remaining.
Shallow, high-speed corners have generally suited Mercedes more down the years than the nimbler Red Bull or Ferrari. That is why porpoising has affected Hamilton and Russell’s raw speed so badly this year.
Yet the recent progress the Silver Arrows have made with the issue means both drivers should be well placed to challenge in France.
Last time out in Austria it was qualifying that let Russell and Hamilton down. They finished Sunday’s race third and fourth but both could have fought for the win had errors across the Friday and Saturday not scuppered their chances.
As it turned out, Austria was not a friendly track for any of the drivers. This weekend, however, Paul Ricard promises to be a much smoother ride.
The two DRS zones – one on the main straight and another leading from turns seven to eight – from last season are likely to remain. This will give Mercedes the chance to keep pace with rivals, even if they fluff qualifying.
And with Ferrari struggling with power unit problems, this race could be a return of the classic Mercedes vs Red Bull shootout.
Mercedes’ bullishness
Word in the Mercedes camp is they are confident Hamilton and Russell’s cars will take kindly to Paul Ricard.
“Despite lacking a little pace to Ferrari and Red Bull, we’re encouraged by the fact we’re moving in the right direction and have more to come in the next few races,” says Mercedes engineering director Andrew Shovlin.
“We have a busy few days ahead at the factory to recover the situation on car parts [from Austria], this weekend has not been great in that regard! But we’ll pull that back in time for Paul Ricard and are looking forward to a track that should suit the car.”
And team principle Toto Wolff, ever the optimist, is also talking up Mercedes’ chances.
“Paul Ricard should be OK. It is a smooth circuit like Silverstone with almost corners and on paper, it looks like we can have a good performance there” Wolff said last week.
“We were lacking speed on the straight and I think we are draggy. We seem to be lacking power [in Austria], maybe it is the altitude. The guys at HPP will look at it and make gains at the next events.”
