Red Bull and Max Verstappen should love their chances in Mexico City because the racing conditions favor the championship leader. Our selection for the Mexican Grand Prix underscores the value on the grid this weekend when F1 returns to Mexico.
The F1 betting board offers chances to win the Mexican Grand Prix this week as Formula 1 heads to Mexico City after a year of absence.
World Cup leader Max Verstappen has won twice in Mexico and is the Formula 1 betting favorite on the odds table for the Mexican Grand Prix.
Below we have the full Formula 1 odds and Mexican Grand Prix tips for you.
Selection for the Mexican Grand Prix
The selection will be made on 11/2/2021 at 5:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each selection to jump to the full analysis.
F1 Mexican Grand Prix odds
| driver | Chances of winning the Mexican Grand Prix |
|---|---|
| Max Verstappen | -150 |
| Lewis Hamilton | +200 |
| Sergio Perez | +1,200 |
| Valtteri Bottas | +1,600 |
| Charles Leclerc | +3,300 |
| Lando Norris | +5,000 |
| Carlos Sainz | +6,600 |
| Daniel Ricciardo | +6,600 |
| Pierre Gasly | +10,000 |
| George Russell | +10,000 |
| Fernando Alonso | +15,000 |
| Esteban Ocon | +25,000 |
| Sebastian Vettel | +25,000 |
| Yuki Tsunoda | +25,000 |
| Mick Schumacher | +25,000 |
| Lance walk | +50,000 |
| Nicholas Latifi | +50,000 |
| Kimi Raikkonen | +50,000 |
| Antonio Giovinazzi | +50,000 |
| Nikita Mazepin | +50,000 |
Odds courtesy of bet365 on November 2nd.
Where does the Mexican Grand Prix take place?
The Mexican Grand Prix has been held every year at the Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez since the F1 calendar resumed in 2015. The circuit in Mexico City is at a great height, which has a major impact on the racing strategy. The track has 17 corners and three DRS zones, two of which are in the first sector, which offer many overtaking opportunities from an epic section of the stadium.
Tips and recommendations for the Formula 1 Grand Prix of Mexico
Tip: Fastest qualifier and race win – Max Verstappen (+125)
Red Bull and Max Verstappen recovered from an uncompetitive Turkish Grand Prix in Austin. Verstappen apparently came out of nowhere on Saturday after losing the pace in practice on Friday to take pole position in qualifying. Then, after Lewis Hamilton won the first corner sprint and took the lead, Red Bull won the battle of strategy as Verstappen would recapture the lead and not look back.
Banner day for Red Bull put Verstappen 12 points ahead of the title fight in a great position to extend his championship lead at the next opportunity, as the Mexican Grand Prix should favor Red Bull over Mercedes.
Under normal conditions, Red Bull would have the time advantage in the first and third sectors on this track, while Mercedes could gain time in the powerful second sector. However, this race takes place at the height of Mexico City, which will change the conditions significantly. Mercedes’ performance advantage is diminished in the thin air of Mexico City, and the disadvantage for Mercedes is compounded here by Red Bull’s superior downforce, which increases in altitude.
Verstappen was Lewis Hamilton’s superior driver this season, and in Mexico City he will have the superior car too. Rightly the -150 favorite on race day, we will put him on pole position on Saturday and win the race on Sunday for a better price-performance ratio.
Tip: podium placement – Sergio Perez (-125)
It is obvious that both Red Bull drivers will benefit from having the dominant car on the track this weekend. Still, this would have been a tough choice before the second half of the season, as Perez had a largely difficult first season at Red Bull behind him. However, lately he has regained his form and is starting to ride consistently and is not that far off from Verstappen’s pace.
Perez has finished third in a row, and it would have been three in a row if he and Red Bull hadn’t made the wrong decision when the rain set in at the end of the Russian Grand Prix. This comes on the back of Perez, who says that he finally found a setup that works for him on a notoriously difficult-to-drive Red Bull car, and the grid for the remainder of the season.
If Red Bull lived up to expectations this weekend, Verstappen would not only extend his lead in the drivers ‘championship, but Red Bull would also make the constructors’ championship increasingly competitive. The conditions are right and Perez will crown his steadily improving form with his first podium in his home race.
Tip: Top 6 placement – Carlos Sainz (-188)
Just as Red Bull will benefit from the conditions of the Grand Prix this weekend in the battle for the title, so will Ferrari in the battle for third place. It’s a bit more difficult to find any value from that, however, as a top 6 placement for Charles Leclerc (-250) doesn’t offer one, while a podium (+225) is too unlikely to take that leap of faith. Achieve a top 6 position for the always reliable Carlos Sainz.
While almost every other driver who switched teams before 2021 struggled throughout the season, Sainz quickly switched to Ferrari and continued to score one solid result after another. Sainz has qualified in the top 6 eight times this season and also finished the race in the top 6 eight times, with three seventh places on top of that.
A top 6 finish for Sainz is certainly likely here, but waiting until after qualifying on Saturday could represent a greater chance of value. Any match bet that includes Sainz or Leclerc against Lando Norris or Daniel Ricciardo’s McLaren would favor Ferrari drivers and potentially offer better value, depending on qualifying results.
Starting grid at the Mexican Grand Prix
After qualifying for the Mexican Grand Prix, stop by for the grid for Sunday’s race.
Previous winners of the Mexican Grand Prix
| year | Mexican Grand Prix winner |
|---|---|
| 2019 | Lewis Hamilton |
| 2018 | Max Verstappen |
| 2017 | Max Verstappen |
| 2016 | Lewis Hamilton |
| 2015 | Nico Rosberg |
How to bet on Formula 1
The most popular way to bet on Formula 1 odds is to simply pick the winner of a particular race. Other popular F1 betting options include which car / designer wins and whether or not a particular racer will finish on the podium with a top 3 finish.
The odds for F1 races usually look like this:
This means that if Vettel wins that particular race you will win $ 650 on a bet of $ 100. If a driver is particularly dominant, you may see a minus sign (-) in front of that driver’s odds, like this:
This means that if Hamilton wins the race, you have to wager $ 175 to win $ 100.
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