We have officially reached the summer break and as always, it’s the time of the silly season.
The driver market is often unpredictable in Formula 1, but today we’re going to do our best to filter the rumors and predict which drivers will drive for each team in the next season.
Before we start forecasting who will occupy the empty seats, which drivers have already been confirmed for next year?
Lewis Hamilton will stay with Mercedes while McLaren couple Lando Norris and Daniel Ricciardo stay together. Esteban Ocon and Fernando Alonso will try to build on their performances in Hungary, and Nikita Mazepin and Mick Schumacher hope for a better fate for Haas.
Unsurprisingly, Max Verstappen is staying with Red Bull, Ferrari has retained its current line-up while Sebastian Vettel is the only confirmed Aston Martin driver to date.
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So there are still nine places to be filled when we come to these important predictions, starting with the obvious ones.
Tech-wise, Lance Stroll doesn’t have a contract for 2022 yet, but since his father is providing the money for Aston Martin, he’s guaranteed to run alongside Sebastian Vettel next year.
Stroll was known as a paid driver when he arrived in Formula 1. Sure, the only teammate he actually beat during his time in Formula 1 was Sergey Sirotkin in 2018, but he’s a very solid driver and offers way more value than just money.
In my opinion, Stroll is one of the underrated drivers on the grid. Stroll has certainly had no luck on his side this season, but I support him to do well next year, when Aston Martin can develop a better race car.
Sergio Perez, another undocumented driver, is all but confirmed that he will race for Red Bull again in 2022. Sure, he didn’t exactly knock down trees in the team and is still way behind Max Verstappen’s racing pace in both qualifying and qualifying, but he is an experienced driver with speed; he’s almost the perfect second driver.
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The talk of Pierre Gasly’s return to the top team has been simmering for some time, but I can’t yet imagine that Helmut Marko will give the Frenchman another chance.
It will be Perez for now.
AlphaTauri – Pierre Gasly
Speaking of Gasly: We believe that he will stay with AlphaTauri and develop himself further. Many had linked him with Alpine, but Ocon’s contract renewal quickly broke those rumors, while some have even suggested he might join Williams.
He’s comfortable where he is, however, and having qualified in the top 6 eight times this season, he’s got a solid reputation for being the driver of the season.
In my opinion he is one of the top drivers on the grid, but a departure from AlphaTauri doesn’t seem likely.
We’re moving away from the obvious now and assuming it will be Alex Albon, not Yuki Tsunoda, who’s working with Gasly next year. Both were dumped by Red Bull, but only Gasly had a chance of making amends. Albon never had the chance, and he fully deserved it. His rookie season has been immense and although his consistency on the top team has stalled, he is still a talented driver.
As mentioned earlier, Gasly was immense in qualifying, but Tsunoda just wasn’t. He failed to reach Q2 five times, even though his team-mate is right at the front. That’s just not good enough, and he may have to take a step back and come back just like Ocon in the future.
Personally, I like Albon a lot, but if our prediction is wrong, I can’t imagine he will ever return to F1 if the juniors get through. But for 2022, we believe that he will get another chance to show his courage.
Gio’s seat is seriously threatened for next year. Both he and Kimi Raikkonen could leave the team, but Gio’s qualifying pace, as well as his Italian connections, could keep him in one place.
As an Italian company, Alfa Romeo will want an Italian driver whenever possible, and Giovinazzi as second driver for one of the slowest teams on the grid isn’t the worst option in the world.
His first lap pace is really good and while he is a bit of an uninspiring pick we think he will simply oust Callum Ilott for this place.
It’s also worth noting that if Robert Schwartzman makes a comeback in Formula 2 and wins the championship, he’ll most likely get that seat.
Yes, that’s right, we believe that Valtteri Bottas will lose his seat at Mercedes. He was a solid option alongside Lewis Hamilton, but this year in particular he hasn’t reached the car’s potential.
That said, we think he will join a new team and we assume it will be Alfa Romeo. Those connections came a bit out of nowhere, but reports suggest Bottas is in talks with Frederic Vasseur’s team and it could be a perfect match.
He’ll be the number one driver straight away and we can see how that works. A move back to Williams is also on the agenda, but with so many options for Jost Capito’s team, we expect Bottas to run for Alfa in 2022.
Bottas to Alfa Romeo means it’s time for George Russell to get into this Mercedes on a full-time basis.
He deserved to win the Sakhir Grand Prix when he stood in for Hamilton last year, and he has managed to get his Williams into Q3 twice this season despite being the third slowest car at best.
Mr. Saturday needs a Merc seat to perform on a Sunday, and I really believe he’ll be racing Hamilton and Verstappen for the world title right away next year.
The dynamic between Russell and Hamilton will be fascinating, but I can’t wait.
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Williams has stated that thanks to new investments, they no longer require the presence of paid drivers on their roster and this is potentially a sneaky attack on Nicholas Latifi.
The Canadian could easily lose his seat and in fact I am the least confident about that prediction, but his performance at the Hungarian Grand Prix and his improvement this year could convince the team.
In qualifying this year he halved the gap to Russell, and on a Sunday his racing pace is not much slower than the British one.
He is far from the best driver on the grid but his experience on the team could be crucial and two new drivers are risky so we expect Latifi to stay here.
Williams – Nyck de Vries
The only F2 winner not rewarded with a seat in F1, Nyck de Vries deserves a chance. Well, there are rumors of Nico Hulkenberg for a seat at Williams and it’s a bit controversial that we leave him out, but he had his chance in F1, De Vries didn’t.
He won the F2 championship in 2019, was only 17 points behind Lando Norris in 2018 and is currently leading the Formula E championship.
His ties to Mercedes are sure to increase his chances of getting a seat at Williams too.
At 26, it’s now or never about De Vries’ potential F1 career.
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The post Our predictions for the F1 driver line-up for 2022 first appeared on monter-une-startup.
