Mercedes have accepted that barring freak outcomes, biblical storms or pestilence in Brazil on Sunday or the return of a contrite Michael Masi for a corrective spell at the controls in Abu Dhabi next week, the year will end winless for the first time since 2011.
George Russell’s pole in Hungary, the prospect of a win in Austin and the pace at altitude in Mexico were proof of the progress made after the early season torment. Nevertheless, the Mercedes is set for a radical overhaul in the winter in the hope that Russell and Lewis Hamilton see rather less of Max Verstappen’s diffuser in 2023 and more of him in their mirrors.
Recent upgrades have given Mercedes a firm understanding of the ride height difficulties behind the porpoising phenomenon that blighted 2022. The eureka moment came at the Azerbaijan Grand Prix, after which the team zeroed in on the floor design and rear suspension architecture, both of which will bear little resemblance to this year’s car when the teams reconvene in March.
“I think we’ve found a path we believe in, a path we can move along and get better,” Mercedes technical director Mike Elliott said this week. “F1 is a learning game, you never know all the answers. What we’ve been trying to do is to make sure there’s nothing we’re missing, keep digging, see if it’s something else we need to find.”
More from formula 1
How much the changes will impact their zero sidepod design is unclear. Mercedes were the only team to adopt the feature. The rule of thumb in this sport is to drill down into the concept of the winning car and steal as many of its features as practicable. Mercedes are coy on how much of the Red Bull philosophy, which allows it to run higher without compromising aero efficiency, will inform their 2023 car.
“I think the DNA of the car is going to change for next year, that’s clear,” Mercedes team principal Toto Wolff said. “It doesn’t necessarily mean that the bodywork is going to look very different.”
After a dominant ride to a second successive drivers’ championship through the aegis of the remarkable Verstappen, Red Bull can expect to carry over a significant advantage in 2023. However there is hope for Ferrari and Mercedes following the budget cap wind tunnel penalty that will cut Red Bull’s aero development time imposed by a further 10 per cent on top of the 30 per cent leveling up whack for winning the constructors’ title.
The incremental wind tunnel penalties for the top six teams could have a consequence for the battle for second place too. Despite their troubles this year, Mercedes trail Ferrari by only 40 points in the constructors’ championship with two races to go. Whilst there would be a degree of satisfaction in overhauling the Scuderia in Brazil and Abu Dhabi, the extra five per cent reduction in wind tunnel time it would cost might not be worth it.
The measure introduced last year in a bid to level the field means the team finishing first loses 30 per cent of the 460 basic allowance of wind tunnel testing, second loses 25 per cent, third 20 per cent and so on. The bottom three teams get an extra allocation of 5 per cent per place so that 8th gets 105 per cent of 460 hours, 9th 110 and 10th 115.
F1 constructors’ championship standings 2022
Points correct ahead of Brazilian GP
- 1 red bull 696 points
- 2 Ferrari 487
- 3 Mercedes 447
- 4 Alpine 153
- 5 McLaren 146
- 6 Alfa Romeo 53
- 7 Aston-Martin 49
- 8th haas 36
- 9 AlphaTauri 35
- 10 Williams 8th
As things stood Mercedes would benefit from 20 per cent more aero testing than Red Bull to cut into a performance deficit that has been steadily shrinking.
That design effort is already in full swing at Mercedes HQ. Russell cut short his down time between Mexico and Brazil to visit the Brackley lab. “I was at the factory on Tuesday,” he said. “It’s been a very important couple of weeks for us in terms of development for next year. We had some important meetings and simulator sessions last week which I wanted to be back home for.
“The mindset now is we can definitely fight for the championship next year. If we hit our targets over the winter, we will be in a really competitive place. And even if we don’t start off with the fastest car, I am very confident we will have a car that is a lot closer than this year.”
