5 things we learned from Friday practice for the Belgian Grand Prix

Friday had a bit of everything to offer in terms of weather in Spa, while Max Verstappen had the high point of the fastest time and the low point at the finish. Does he have a car that can fight for victory and help him regain the lead in the drivers’ championship from Lewis Hamilton? And where do all the others pile up? Let’s look at what we learned from the Friday run in Belgium …

1. The weather in Spa is still unpredictable

In a minute the sun breaks through the clouds and Spa-Francorchamps is bathed in wonderful warmth. Only a few minutes later you reach for the umbrella, because the sun disappears, the light falls and the rain falls – in different intensities.

Trying to predict the weather in the Ardennes forest, where the longest Formula 1 circuit is located, is a stupid task. Instead, just go with the flow, with quick reactions and solid preparation – with plans for everything from A to Z – the key to success here.

FP2: Verstappen leads the second training session before triggering the red flag at Spa with a late shunt

On Friday, the two hour-long workouts were essentially dry, while the F3 and W-series support series struggled with the wet stuff. The forecast at the time of writing suggests that it will rain more often over the weekend, so it is almost certain that Pirellis Intermediate or Wets will be required at some point.

When it rains on the horizon, it becomes difficult to choose the direction for the construction. Low downforce is the way to go if you want to be strong in Sectors 1 and 3, but high downforce is better for Sector 2 and of more use when the skies open. However, it will leave you exposed and potentially turn you into a sitting duck on the straights. Decisions decisions.

It looks likely that there will be more rainy weather action throughout the weekend

2. Red Bull shows encouraging pace

Red Bull, like Mercedes, decided to split their programs in FP1 so they could try out both low and high downforce setups as the car felt.

It wasn’t the ideal ending to FP2 for the title contender, as the Dutchman lost control of his RB16B and crashed into the Malmedy barriers. But up to that point it looked quick out there, especially with lower fuel consumption, and the statistics confirm that, with our data suggesting that Red Bull is 0.15 seconds faster than Mercedes.

READ MORE: “A very positive start” – Verstappen shrugs after finishing the fastest in Spa on Friday

Their long runs weren’t that impressive, Red Bull was about 0.2 seconds per lap slower, but both Verstappen and his teammate Sergio Perez – the latter is flying high for another year after his renewed contract with Red Bull – expect that them in the fight with Mercedes. Perhaps a first Spa victory since Daniel Ricciardo’s triumph in 2014 could be in sight …

3. Mercedes with the top on long runs

Lewis Hamilton admitted that he and his Mercedes team still have quite a bit of work to do overnight to deliver a car that will be comfortable under him – and while they certainly have something to find in qualifying trim, with their efforts they can be very satisfied when they have filled the car with fuel.

Their rival Daniel Ricciardo said that with fuel in the car they looked particularly quick on the middle distances compared to the rest of the field, while Mercedes circuit chief Andrew Shovlin said Hamilton had some vibrations on his long distance that “didn’t help his balance.” to have”.

READ MORE: “The car wasn’t quite under me today,” says Hamilton as Mercedes looks for profits at Spa

Shovlin added, “It’s hard to know where we are; The route is very sensitive to performance, so climbing and dismounting in the modes can lead to large fluctuations in the lap time. But the car seems to be working the way it should and it looks like we’re there or about the pace. Hopefully we can make further progress with the car overnight. “

Since Bottas needs a car that is ready to overtake, the Finn has opted for a low downforce setting in view of his five-place penalty for his antics in Hungary. “It feels good,” he said. “It’s going to be close with Red Bull without a doubt, so we only need to make marginal profits tonight.”

4. McLaren appears to have an advantage over P3 rivals Ferrari

McLaren arrived at Spa in anticipation of a challenging weekend but they looked promising on Friday. Our data showed they were the third fastest team in terms of short range pace. And while they drop to fifth in the long-term pace ranking, Aston Martin and Alpine are only tenth.

Lando Norris said the car felt “pretty good” and they made some “good improvements” from session one to session two – one day when they updated their brake channels. And while Daniel Ricciardo’s position didn’t look too promising – Ricciardo finished FP2 in P15 and Norris in P9 – the Australian lost several tenths when he ran up behind Nikita Mazepin’s Haas.

READ MORE: What the teams said – Friday in Belgium

Ricciardo believes McLaren is “here or there” with Ferrari in terms of pace, though admittedly there’s a little bit of unknown about the red cars after Charles Leclerc crashed in FP2 to disrupt their data collection.

Belgium GP FP2 2021: Leclerc crash in turn 6 reveals red flags

READ MORE: Leclerc is looking for answers after ‘tricky’ FP2 crashed the session

Ferrari ranks eighth on our qualifying graph, but that’s an anomaly as there isn’t enough representative data to make a good read. Carlos Sainz admitted that it was difficult to find the right balance in cool conditions, while Leclerc stated that the car didn’t feel as good in FP2, even if not much changed.

Ferrari was more than a minute behind the leaders at the end of last year’s Belgian Grand Prix. But they’re looking closer in 2021 – and if they find something overnight, we could see another close battle between two of F1’s most iconic names.

Ricciardo believes McLaren will be in the mix with Ferrari

5. Alpine and Aston Martin might surprise you

Alpine arrived on the crest of the waves in Belgium after her first Grand Prix win, courtesy of Esteban Ocon.

And they seemed to transfer that momentum to the Spa track, with Fernando Alonso – with an ultra-cool sighting camera in FP2 – saying his Alpine felt fast right out of the blocks, with teammate Ocon being encouraged by the speed they showed early Doors.

READ MORE: “It will be 100% fun” – Alonso enjoys the prospect of Spa qualifying after finishing second practice in P4

HELMCAM: Alonso wears the first Formula 1 helmet camera during Belgian GP training

According to our data, Q3 should be on the cards for both Alpine countries, although it will be a close affair with Aston Martin. And it will be the green cars that are likely to be the biggest threat too, based on our long-term numbers, with Lawrence Stroll’s team being the best of the rest on that metric, if only 0.03 seconds faster per lap than Alpine.

READ MORE: Gasly Says AlphaTauri in “Best Shape” after spending Friday in the top 5 at Spa

There’s quite a gap between Mercedes and Red Bull and then the rest of the field, but that’s to be expected on a track that is between 2 and 3km longer than most on the calendar. And as some motorists said on Friday, the weather can change dramatically – and that means the form book goes out the window.