United States Grand Prix Picks and Predictions

Red Bull got to celebrate Max Verstappen clinching the title in Japan and now the team heads to COTA with the chance of being crowned Constructors’ Champions. Our United States Grand Prix picks detail why it’s set to be a great weekend for Red Bull.

For the second time this season, Formula 1 is going racing Stateside with the United States Grand Prix in Austin, Texas.

The Circuit of the Americas is among the best to regularly appear on the F1 calendar, and despite Max Verstappen already crowned as the Drivers’ Champion (and a heavy United States Grand Prix odds favorite), there’s no shortage of intrigue up and down the grid at the US Grand Prix.

Ahead of qualifying, we’re taking a look at the F1 betting board to bring you our United States Grand Prix picks and predictions.

United States Grand Prix picks and predictions

Pre-qualifying predictions

Picks made on 10/21/2022 at 3:00 pm ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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United States GP predictions (pre-qualifying)

Both cars points finish pick

Three retirements across the races in Monza and Singapore aside, Alpine continued its excellent second half of the season in Japan and strengthened its hold on fourth in the Constructors’ Championship as a result.

After qualifying fifth (Esteban Ocon) and seventh (Fernando Alonso), Ocon finished fourth — and did a fantastic job keeping Lewis Hamilton behind him — while Alonso came home seventh in a rain-effected race. The double points finish was Alpine’s ninth in the last 11 Grand Prix, which is even more impressive when considering its major upgrades were only recently implemented.

At the United States Grand Prix, Alpine is set up to make it 10 double point finishes in the last 12 races. COTA is a fantastically high-speed track, with long straights in the first and second sectors, and rapid, flowing corners until the slower third sector. That sort of circuit plays right into Alpine’s strengths, with the French outfit boasting an outstanding power unit this year, as the grid’s second-quickest car in a straight line.

More encourage still is that Alpine brought further upgrades to COTA, after its previous upgrade apparently worked brilliantly. The success Ocon had in keeping Hamilton behind him in the wet in Japan, where Mercedes’ superior downforce should’ve been a major edge, bodes well for Alpine in that third and final sector too.

Barring any technical issues or racing incidents, Alpine should not only easily come in with two finish points, but push for the top 6, too.

peck: Alpine – Both cars points finish (-138 at bet365)

Both cars podium finish pick

Between Max Verstappen’s dominant run to the Drivers’ Championship and Red Bull’s generous lead in the Constructors’ Championship, it’s no secret Red Bull has created the grid’s best car this season. It is, quite simply, vastly superior to every other car, Ferrari included.

While Verstappen and Red Bull have had a few incredible showings this year, there’s been no better representation of the team’s dominance than its performances at F1’s balanced tracks — the ones that reward straight-line speed as much as it does downforce that enables speed to be carried through corners.

That was no better represented than in Spa at the Belgian Grand Prix, which like COTA is a long lap, and requires power, power, and more power in the first sector but a good aero package in the later parts of the lap.

It was at Spa where Red Bull was not only quickest in the first sector but also in the sectors that should have favored Ferrari and Mercedes. As a result, the team finished with a 1-2 as Verstappen won from 14th on the grid.

COTA, with its rapid first and second sectors before a winding, technical third sector, fits that billing too. Teams can’t be too generous with their aero setup and risk losing a tone of time in the early parts of the lap, but they can’t completely disregard it and suffer in the third sector either.

While that will require nearly every team to make compromises in their car’s setup, Red Bull has proven again and again that it has successfully married a dominant power unit with strong downforce. At a circuit that demands the complete package, Red Bull is equipped to deliver.

Sergio Perez’s engine penalty will see him take a five-place grid penalty before the race but that’s not nearly enough of a drop to make me concerned about the team’s chances of a double podium this weekend.

peck: Red Bull – Both cars podium finish (+120 at bet365)

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